Comparing Probability of Admission: Differences in Population Comparisons

Robert C. Bowman, M.D.

For all US MD Grads the average is 8 admissions per 100,000 citizens and residents. This declines to 7 when considering only the 84% born in the United States. Rural and urban determinations were Masterfile percentages. This data is a comparison to physician birth origins as of 1970, the approximate census birth county population for 1990s medical school graduates. Short video on most needed health access, birth origins, and probability of admission.

More direct census data is required to assess probability of admission for those not in the US at birth. About 1 in 200 that were medical school age were in medical school.

1994 - 2000

Medical Students (AAMC)

Census 2000

Age 18 – 24 Census

Allopathic Graduates

1994-2000

% MS

Odds Ratio to US Pop

Mil-lions

% Pop

As % of Total Pop

Millions

% of 18 - 24 Total

Odds Ratio to % MS

Asian Indian

8136

6.5%

10.73

1.7

0.6%

10.8%

0.16

0.6%

10.36

Chinese

4882

3.9%

4.05

2.7

1.0%

10.8%

0.21

0.8%

4.74

All Asian

20340

16.2%

3.83

12

4.2%

10.8%

1.034

4.1%

3.99

Vietnamese

1424

1.13%

2.84

1.1

0.4%

10.6%

0.097

0.4%

2.97

All Urban Born

109228

87.0%

1.13

216.7

77.0%

9.3%

19.7

77.3%

1.13

US Total

125549

100.0%

1.00

281.4

100.0%

9.0%

25.47

100.0%

1.00

White

81973

65.29%

0.87

211.5

75.1%

8.3%

17.4

68.4%

0.95

Native American

871

0.69%

0.47

4.1

1.5%

10.6%

0.222

0.9%

0.80

All Rural Born

16321

13.0%

0.57

64.7

23.0%

9.0%

6.218

24.4%

0.53

Black

8880

7.07%

0.55

36.4

12.9%

10.3%

3.593

14.1%

0.50

MexicanAmerican

2887

2.30%

0.31

20.6

7.3%

12.8%

3.111

12.2%

0.19

 

Highest Probability of Admission: There were 8,136 Asian Indian medical school graduates of allopathic United States medical schools from 1994 – 2000 as listed in Association of American Medical Colleges data. There were 1.7 million total Asian Indians and 159,236 Asian Indian citizens and residents who were age 18 – 24 as listed in the census in 2000. This was 0.6% of both respective population groups. Asian Indians who became US MD Grads were 10.7 times more likely to gain admission than their representation in the United States population.

 

There were 2887 Mexican American medical school graduates of allopathic United States medical schools from 1994 – 2000 as listed in Association of American Medical Colleges data. There were 20.6 million total Mexican Americans and 3.1 million Mexican American citizens and residents who were age 18 – 24 as listed in the census in 2000. Mexican American medical students were 2.3% of all medical students and 7.3% of all counted in the census and 12.2% of those age 18 – 24 years. Mexican Americans were 0.31 times as likely to be medical students compared to the Mexican American population and 0.19 or 5 times less likely to be physicians compared to 18 – 24 year old Mexican Americans.

 

It is important to consider a number of factors regarding probability of admission. These factors are related to “inclusion” or low levels of social distance from medical schools, younger age at medical school admission, career choices found mostly in major medical centers, and major medical center practice location.

More exclusive, associated with concentrations, and especially associated with combinations of concentration (income, people, health resources, specialists, physicians, medical schools) is associated with greater probability of admission and lower probability of needed health access.

Lower probability of admission can be summarized by

More normal and less exclusive is lower probability of admission, but higher probability of needed health access. www.basichealthaccess.org  

Higher probability of physician distribution to rural or to underserved locations is summarized by the same measurements – social and geographic distance, older age, and lower test scores. Admissions probability and distribution probability are related to the same factors, in opposite directions, and roughly the same magnitude.

 

Admissions Changes Table 1967 to 2005

Changes in Admissions in Allopathic Medical Schools

Admissions and Distribution

Admissions Income Quartiles

Admissions Ratios and US Medical Students

Physician Workforce Studies

 

For info on the databases, sharing research, or ideas rcbowman@atsu.edu

www.physicianworkforcestudies.org

www.basichealthaccess.org

www.ruralmedicaleducation.org

 

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